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No matter if you are a newbie in sports betting or have already wagered a decent amount of money for quite some time now, you probably have noticed one thing already – the betting odds always change. Sometimes, it’s just by a few numbers but sometimes, the changes can be so drastic it can turn the tables between the favorites and the underdogs around.
When we’re dealing with bookmakers, we’re always interested in understanding why the odds change. What causes one bookmaker to offer a price on the Lakers winning the Knicks at +150 while another is quite happy to give that same bet away at +215? And a few hours later, each bookmaker’s odds might swap for different ones. What makes bookies change their odds every few minutes?
But why do bookies do this? What is the basis on how much they would tilt the odds to one side? Here are the things you should know.
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FACTORS THAT AFFECT BOOKMAKERS ODDS
Major News
Even developments in the team or individual player can tip the odds from the bookies, as this information can change the preference of the betting public. This is also why as a bettor, you also have to be in the loop when it comes to news about the game or teams you are betting on.
News that may affect the behavior of the betting market may include team lineup changes, coaches getting changed, suspended, or facing an issue, players facing public backlash due to recent behavior, or even a simple social media drama between teams.
Sharp Punters’ Bets
Sharp partners are those who are experienced and skilled enough to predict the outcome of the game and see beyond what the bookies want you to believe. Most of the time, especially if they know that their pick is a really good one, they would go all-in and place a huge bet on one side of the action.
Say, for example, a bet of $100,000 on the Patriots. This immediately tips the action towards the team and changes the balance of the bet amounts – which is something the bookies do not like.
In situations like this, the sportsbooks have two options: to outright deny the huge bet of the sharp, or accept it and tip the odds more in favor of the other team now. This is to encourage the public and the squares into thinking that there is better value on the other side of the action.
Always keep in mind that the odds and lines are not an industry standard and each sportsbook decides the numbers they will publish. What does this mean for you, as a bettor? This is where line shopping comes in.
Line shopping refers to the act of checking out multiple bookies and trying to find which one offers better value for your money. One of the most common newbie mistakes is not doing line shopping – beginners usually assume that the odds they see are always the same for each bookie and thus, take no time comparing and contrasting anymore.
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